What I Think About In Traffic

On the way in to work this morning I decided that the worst case scenario in the coming election would be Huckabee vs. Hillary. Best case from the Democratic standpoint: Huckabee vs. Obama. Best case from a Republican standpoint: McCain vs. Obama. That is also, I think, the best case scenario from the standpoint of the health of the American political system.

Also on the way to work this morning, I decided that Huckabee will win Iowa and McCain will win New Hampshire.

The most interesting macropolitical question I find myself pondering is whether Bill Clinton and George W. Bush will be our only Baby Boomer Presidents. If Obama wins, it could work out that way.

Also, I think my feet are getting bigger, because my shoes feel tight.

Comments

[Frank]

Are you defining best case as in the candidate from that party that could win? Because McCain is far from our best conservative candidate. Best case conservatively speaking would be Duncan Hunter, but apparently he just isn't going to gain any traction anywhere.

McCain has spent most of the last eight years doing whatever he can to piss off as much of the Republican base as possible. He may win New Hampshire, but it'll be because the vast majority of Republicans in that state qualify as RINOs.

As far as your feet go, you know that when you put on weight, you notice it first in your feet? Not that I'm pointing fingers, because my shoes have been a little snug ever since Thanksgiving.

[Mike S.]

I think the worst case would be Huckabee vs. Edwards. I won't go into detail on how I reached that conclusion but tend to distrust populists and feel that they appeal to our worst impulses . I suspect that his Presidency would most resemble Carter's in that he would be weak and ineffectual.

I agree that the best hope for the country would be McCain vs. Obama. I also think that Obama would win. I also think that the winner will most likely be a one term President. Of course I also thought that in 2000 so my crystal ball is cloudy at best.

[Mike S.]

I think the worst case would be Huckabee vs. Edwards. I won't go into detail on how I reached that conclusion but tend to distrust populists and feel that they appeal to our worst impulses . I suspect that his Presidency would most resemble Carter's in that he would be weak and ineffectual.

I agree that the best hope for the country would be McCain vs. Obama. I also think that Obama would win. I also think that the winner will most likely be a one term President. Of course I also thought that in 2000 so my crystal ball is cloudy at best.

[Mike S.]

It appears that I should do a quick proof read before posting. In my comment above I was thinking of Edwards but it could equally apply to Huckabee.

[Frank]

McCain has been a media darling for years, mostly because he took stances contrary to most republicans. Out of principle or out of the opportunity to keep his name in the press, I don't know and don't really care. But he has also been known to do and/or say some stupid things. Such as back in 98 when he was campaigning and at a fund raiser told this joke.

"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly?
Because her father is Janet Reno."

If most any other republican had said something this mean and stupid, it would still be playing in campaign ads, but since McCain has been the press' favorite maverick, he got a pass on it.

Full disclosure, I used to live in Arizona, and even voted for McCain once upon a time. I don't plan on that happening again.

[Tom]

My thinking on Hillary vs. Huckabee as "worst case" is this: If Hillary gets nominated, I want a decent Republican to vote for, since I'm dead serious that putting the dynastic Bush and Clinton families to rest is important.

That said, Huckabee vs. Edwards might just be a nightmare scenario.

McCain has lots of problems that don't come out at this stage of the campaign, though I'm not sold that media bias has anything to do with it. Media bias doesn't explain everything. I think there's an "old news" quality to some of his dumber things in the past. (Anyone remember Charles Keating and the S&L debacle?) Those dumb-things-long-past tend to reappear during the general, even if they seem forgotten in the primary.

Finally, to answer a concern raised in an email, I'm not counting in my scenarios those which I consider unrealistic. Hence, no mention of Alan Keyes or Mike Gravel, both of whom are certifiably insane.

[Squidley]

McCain would be awful, but Giuliani would be worse. The reason is that McCain is merely an anti-American, illegal alien-loving RINO, whereas Giuliani is an anti-American, illegal alien-loving, despicably immoral RINO. By virtue of his reprehensible personal life--the public affairs, the abuse of public funds to forward said affairs, the public humiliation of his wife, the rotten behavior that has alienated him from his children--President Giuliani would spell the death of morality in politics and the death of the conservative movement for a generation.

Having said that, I hope the Democrats nominate Edwards. Pat Paulson could beat him--and he's been dead for a decade!